Welcome to once-sleepy Georgina, now Ontario’s hottest real estate market

How far do you have to go to find an affordable home that checks all the boxes? For prospective homebuyers in Toronto, that search is increasingly taking them 70 kilometers north to an unlikely hotbed of activity: the town of Georgina.

In March, the average price for a home in the area cracked the half-a-million dollar mark in a big way — rising 42.4% in just 12 months to $544,400. That percentage increase made Georgina the hottest housing market in all of Southern Ontario — hotter than Hamilton, Richmond Hill and even Toronto.

“Where the hell is Georgina?” my editor asked one morning after we discovered the data from the Toronto Real Estate Board.

Not long after, we started searching for short-term rentals in the area. It was time to get to the bottom of why everyone was flocking to Georgina.

So where is Georgina, Ont.?

The first step into my investigation was pretty easy: consult a map. Georgina is the northernmost municipality of York Region. In good traffic, it’s only an hour drive from Toronto’s downtown core, cradled on the southern coast of Lake Simcoe.

Being part of York region, Georgina is technically a part of the GTA. Despite that, the town is primarily rural, with a population of 45,418 (2016 Census) spread out over an area twice the size of Etobicoke. It feels like you’re a long way from the city. There’s one Walmart in the whole region and four Tim Hortons.

While Georgina might be classified as a single municipality, it actually consists of several communities, the most populous of which is Keswick (26,757). Other major communities in the region include Sutton (7,531), Jackson’s Point, and Pefferlaw. These communities follow the winding coast of Lake Simcoe and are separated by kilometers of farmland or quiet lakeside communities. This gives each area a distinct feel. For example, Keswick has the feel of a Toronto suburb. New housing divisions are being developed and its proximity to the 404 Highway make commuting to Toronto a relative breeze. Sutton, meanwhile, feels like a traditional cottage town (the restaurants there still hadn’t opened for the summer season when I arrived).

Getting to Georgina is certainly a challenge without a vehicle. I had to choose between taking a convoluted route on York Transit for three hours, or renting a car and driving up the highway for an hour.

I opted for the rental.

Also, there are no major hotel chains in Georgina. Even Airbnb rentals are limited before the busy summer cottage season. After some searching, I managed to secure a place in Jackson’s Point, a relatively easy 20 minute drive from Keswick.

With an inconspicuous Japanese sedan and a confirmed room at The Lakeshore bed and breakfast, I set out on my journey from Toronto. The drive took me just under an hour in the early afternoon on a Tuesday. It was raining, but traffic flowed well, and I thought to myself about how I wouldn’t mind making the commute daily — when you get far enough on the 404, highrises and subdivisions give way to rolling farmland.

Once the highway ended and the street signs signaled I had arrived in Jackson's Point, it was time to find my room and start meeting locals.

So, what’s the deal with Georgina real estate?

My first meeting in Keswick was with Esther Chow, a certified financial planner and insurance agent who moved to the community ten years ago. At the time, the average home went for $250,000 at most and spent an average of 41 days on the market. Most homes tended to sell below asking price.

Chow is one of the lucky ones. She got in early, and now sees houses on her street going for $600,000 or $700,000 each. It’s clear there’s a huge demand for property. Recently, a real estate agent canvassed Chow’s neighbourhood, leaving flyers in mailboxes. Those flyers made an enticing offer — the promise to buy homes in cash AND let the previous homeowners stay in their old homes, rent-free, for up to a year. Chow says that while the offer was obviously attractive, she won’t be taking the real estate agent up on it anytime soon.

Georgina is no doubt benefiting from spillover from Toronto’s hot housing market. But the real gamechanger, says Eli Peroff of Keller Williams Realty Centres, happened in 2014, when Highway 404 was finally extended up to Keswick.

“In anticipation of that highway coming, for a few years prior to that, you could really start to see the market start to roll,” Peroff told me.

The 404/DVP extension prompted the building of larger subdivision-style developments in the immediate area. Peroff explained that the new developments have added a ton of units to the market, which then attracted buyers from all around the GTA — and even some foreign buyers.

The real estate frenzy isn’t necessarily being embraced by locals. Twenty minutes away in Sutton, a patron at the Lake Simcoe Arms pub told me that all the new development and population growth pushed him to leave Keswick for Sutton. The extra distance makes a significant difference, he said. While sales in Sutton are up too, development hasn’t been nearly as frantic, and the community still retains its more relaxed feel.

Peroff said that Keswick has been experiencing affordability problems since 2016, with many first-time home buyers having difficulty finding a home — especially as properties in the area have seen multiple offers and are selling over asking. According to data pulled from MLS by Peroff, the average home price increased 55.4% year-over-year in Q1 2017. Sales volume grew by 62.3% in that time.

Peroff worries much of the Georgina real estate boom is dominated by investors. With the market opening up, realtors from outside of Georgina have been coming in and doing business in the area — something that I could tell frustrates Peroff. These agents are selling houses based solely on data, rather than having a deep knowledge and familiarity with the area, he says.

Peroff cites an example of the problems this is creating. For instance, many buyers want lakefront property — especially so they can dock boats. But if a realtor is unfamiliar with Lake Simcoe, he or she could end up recommending a property that is shallow or weedy, making docking impossible.

That’s the sort of thing happening right now, says Peroff, with the influx of realtors from areas like Toronto looking to make a quick buck.

Is Keswick the next “it destination” for those priced out of Toronto?

With price spillover affecting communities as far away from the GTA as Niagara Falls, many buyers who’ve been priced out of the city have been increasingly looking to more remote communities to settle down.

While giving me a tour of his townhouse, Peroff told me that he’s very happy with his lifestyle in Georgina. He has a big group of friends here that are always ready to hang out in his garage (which has been converted into a quintessential mancave). On any given night, they could be having a few drinks or watching a sports game.

From the 24 hours I spent in Georgina, it’s clear that there’s a sense of friendliness and community here that’s inherent to small town Ontario. I was happy to stumble upon a weekly open mic hosted at the Lake Simcoe Arms, one of several local taverns in Sutton. It has a great atmosphere and often plays host to local bands.

There’s no denying that to a Torontonian, paying less than $700,000 for a six bedroom house situated on a pristine lake is one hell of a deal. However, that comes with a fairly large amount of compromises. If you like the conveniences of a big city — the ability to walk to restaurants, stores and work  — Georgina may not be for you. Sure, with the 404, Toronto is just a highway drive away. But that highway is also notorious for congested traffic.

If you can live with that, then Georgina makes for a great place to live. Of course, with homes prices growing more than 50% in the past year here, there’s a strong chance it won’t be very affordable for long.